H-1B Lottery Selection Odds Calculator 2026

How the Wage-Weighted H-1B Lottery Works

Effective February 27, 2026, USCIS moved from a purely random H-1B lottery to a wage-weighted selection system. Instead of each registration getting exactly one entry, a registration now gets one entry at Level I, two at Level II, three at Level III and four at Level IV. That weights selection toward higher-paying positions as classified by the Department of Labor's four-tier Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) scale — Level I (entry-level) through Level IV (senior/expert). Each unique beneficiary still only counts once toward the 85,000 annual cap (65,000 regular + 20,000 for the Master's Cap) regardless of weighting; the weighting affects your probability of selection, not the total number of visas available.

DHS's own published estimates in the final rule project a roughly 48% decrease in selection odds for Level I beneficiaries compared to the old random system, while Level IV beneficiaries are estimated to be roughly twice as likely to be selected. USCIS has not published exact equivalent multipliers for Level II and III, so this calculator interpolates a directional estimate between the two published anchor points rather than presenting invented precision.

FY2026 Baseline Context (Pre-Weighting)

For context on overall competition levels: FY2026 saw 343,981 total H-1B registrations, down 26.9% from FY2025's 470,342 (which itself fell 38% from FY2024's 758,994 following the 2025 beneficiary-centric reform that ended duplicate registrations by multiple employers). The FY2026 overall selection rate reached approximately 35.3% under the old random system. FY2027 will be the first cycle evaluated under the new wage-weighted rules, so this baseline provides useful historical context but isn't a direct predictor of what FY2027 selection rates will look like.

FY2027 Cycle: What Actually Happened

• 211,600 properly submitted registrations, down 38.5% from 343,981 for FY2026. It was the first lottery run under wage weighting.
• USCIS announced on 31 March 2026 that it had selected enough registrations. Petitions could be filed from 1 April to 30 June 2026.
• On 17 July 2026 USCIS said it had received enough petitions for both the 65,000 regular cap and the 20,000 master's cap. There was no second lottery.
• According to Wolfsdorf Rosenthal's analysis, 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held US advanced degrees and 17.7% of selected registrations were at Level I. USCIS has not yet published full selection statistics by wage level.

H-1B cap registrations by fiscal year

FY2024 and earlier allowed multiple registrations per person. Beneficiary-centric selection began in FY2025 and wage weighting in FY2027.

The $100,000 H-1B payment: current status

A September 2025 presidential proclamation required a $100,000 payment on certain new H-1B petitions. As of 29 October 2026 it is not being enforced:

• 8 June 2026: the US District Court for Massachusetts vacated the agency actions implementing it. On 24 July 2026 the First Circuit refused to pause that order while the appeal continues.
• 30 September 2026: Judge Gilliam (N.D. California, Global Nurse Force v. Trump) also vacated the policy and the renewed September 2026 proclamation. Agencies cannot enforce it until notice-and-comment rulemaking is completed.
• Appeals are still pending, and a separate DHS proposed rule for a fee of about $103,265 is going through rulemaking. Check with counsel before filing, because this can change quickly.

Common Mistakes

• Assuming the lottery is still purely random. As of February 27, 2026, wage level materially affects your relative odds — a Level I registration and a Level IV registration are no longer equally likely to be selected.
• Registering at a lower wage level than the role actually justifies. Since your wage level is set by the position's OEWS classification, working with your employer to accurately (not artificially low) classify the role can meaningfully affect your odds.
• Not knowing that multiple registrations use your lowest wage level. If several employers register you at different wage levels, USCIS uses the lowest one among them to determine your weighting — a second, lower-wage registration can drag down your odds rather than adding a genuine extra chance.
• Treating FY2026's 35.3% figure as this year's expected rate. That number reflects the old random system. With only 211,600 registrations in FY2027 and weighting by wage level, Level III/IV did better and Level I did worse.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

• USCIS: H-1B electronic registration process
• Ogletree: USCIS completes FY2027 H-1B lottery (31 Mar 2026)
• Reddy Neumann Brown: FY2027 cap reached, no second lottery
• Wolfsdorf Rosenthal: FY2027 lottery results
• Envoy Global: First Circuit declines stay of $100k payment vacatur
• Forbes: judge strikes down latest version of $100,000 fee (1 Oct 2026)